The big question: Where has all the ammunition and all of the reloading supplies disappeared to? Well my friends the answer comes in many parts, but lets just say for arguments sake we have created the perfect storm

First though this is going to be both an informative discussion and a soapbox. I just want everyone to be prepared.

So let's look at the issues at hand:

1. The Pandemic of 2020. The first pandemic for most consumers and the concerns of survival.

2. The growing political unease and the almost certain frenzied buying that always happens in an election year.

3. 8-10 Million new gun owners, depending on who you talk to, through 2020 and now into 2021 is set to a record pace for gun sales again.

4. The threat of the new political anti-gun movement that has brought additional panic buying and uncertainty in the future market, and the reality that there may be government induced shortages and manufacturing limits coming up.

5. The laws of supply and demand.

6. Manufacturings capability to keep up with the new normal.

7. The recent insolvency of Remington and the subsequent backlog that occurred and the catch up now to fill that void.

So let's start backwards and work our way forward. Remington has only recently reopened their ammunition manufacturing plant and as such you can virtually count out all of their ammo for most of 2020. If we utilize the demand theory you can see that Remington was a huge producer of ammunition and primers and they were nowhere to be found for 2020. If you consider the major ammo brands to be Federal, Winchester, Speer, and Remington they would account for about a 25% loss right off the bat for the last year or more. Let's fold in Fiocchi, PMC, Hornady, Sellier & Bellot and we may reduce the impact of Remington being out of commission to about a 10-15% hit on the market. I know you are currently shaking you head and going, well that can't be because there are literally hundreds ammo makers out there in the world. This is true...and they make great products, unfortunately they almost all get their primers from the "Big 4". So since Remington hasn't made any ammo or primers they aren't available. So there goes 25% of the basic OEM market. All the little guys you know and love. Now let's factor in the fact that Remington even though not producing anything for the last year basically now falls under Vista Outdoors...the parent company for Federal and Speer. Both great ammunition manufacturers, and both who have continued to produce ammunition at a fervent pace. Here in comes the wrinkle. Demand has far outstripped supply. The new old Remington plant has come online and should be producing ammo by now, but Vista has said they have about a 1 Billion dollar current backlog just to fill the orders that are on backorder for 2020. So there will be no relief from any ammo or primers produced from the Remington plant until that Billion with a B order is completed. So lets say they get the plant to optimum running efficiency and everyone gets everything perfect, well then you have 12-24 months for everything to get back to normal.

Or so it would seem. Now lets look at the little guys. Everyone outside of the big 4 have to get their supplies from somewhere. They don't have their own primers to make or smokeless powder lines. So they must all split an overburdened supply chain to fill all of their ammo requests. Don't forget that we have now added 10 million new gun owners and if we keep track it's probably closer to 20 million since all this foolishness has started. If you don't believe me, check out your granola crunching neighbors Karen and Thad, that now in addition to their Prius, Pilates, Veganism and crossfit have also decided they need a firearm because they read somewhere it would be good for self defense. So just their impact and buying has created a demand for, brace for it.... 1 Billion rounds of ammo. That's if they all buy just a single box of 50 per gun. 20 million x 50 rounds. See what I did there?

So now let's address the other issue of where have all the supplies gone? It's simple. The manufacturing stream is not currently keeping pace so that everyone buying powder, primers, and bullets can keep pace. The manufacturers are continually releasing items out to market, but a quick check will tell you they haven't even dented their 16 month backorders and their supply chains are maxed just trying to catch up. So now the impact of Remington being out for just a year can start to be felt right?

Remember the toilet paper shortage at the start of the pandemic? People weren't using more of it, it was where they got it from. All jokes aside the toilet paper industry was split between home and commercial use. Everyone came home at once and forgot to steal all of the paper sitting in janitors closets at work. The industry realized they had a problem. 50% of their customer base just transitioned to a different bathroom schedule.

So Remington caused a shortage on the supply chain and the manufacturing side just when they were needed most to ramp up production to meet a huge increased need. So then smaller ammo manufacturers started to feel the squeeze every time they went to order powder or primers. They were basically being choked out by the market that they served. As store shelves started drying up, demands for smaller manufacturers to begin churning out products increased. But the big guys weren't releasing any additional supplies for smaller manufacturers because they, the big guys, had their own shortages in keeping up with current orders and demand. So this becomes a cycle. Until additional supply chains can be created....think overseas manufacturers for primers and powder, but that has it's own delays. Add into that firearms and firearms related imports are tremendously regulated and you start to see the tip of the storm. Getting new imports lines takes considerable time and a political climate that is conducive to international trade in firearms. So that's a joke because importation of firearms and ammo is crazy strict and is only going to get worse with new administrative plans to make the firearms industry a "health concern". So all of your Wolf, Tula, Fiocchi, Sellier&Bellots, Czech, and any other imported primers or powder become an even bigger issue.

So lets look at those items. Powders from other countries have had numerous importation restrictions well before the pandemic or any other problems. We have had powders from Canada, Finland, Australia, Czech republic, and Russia before and the supply lines have been spotty at best. So lets make it even more difficult shall we? Outside importation restrictions and government bureaucracy the other manufacturers have not even been able to keep up with past demand. We have seen shortages well before 2020 with powders, primers, and lead. Now Western Powders, has been purchased by Hodgdon Powder, back in 2020. If you weren't aware, Hodgdon, IMR, and Winchester smokeless powder were all owned by Hodgdon corporation. Now Accurate and Ramshot are as well. So the only other public available powders are Alliant, VihtaVuori (see previous import issues), Vectan, and Czech powder (Shooters World). Hodgdon has recently announced to OEM's that there is no Varget or H4350 that will be available through 2021. Those are two of the most popular rifle powders for reloaders.

to be continued.....